Sunday AM Update: Refresh for chart and more analysis Jungle Cruise starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt kept its ship together at the box office over the weekend, and actually saw an uptick in Friday-to-Saturday grosses (when you back out Thursday previews of $2.7M) of +15% which puts the adventure film at $34.2M, an opening that’s not far from Johnson’s pre-pandemic event film Rampage ($35.7M). All in, add $27.6M in overseas box office and $30M+ in Disney+ Premier global spend and Jungle Cruise counts a first weekend’s worth of revenues of $91.8M. Similar to Black Widow, the bulk of Disney+ Premier spend, I understand, is coming from the U.S. as our market is more accustomed to making purchases on the Disney+ streaming service, while offshore markets are still adopting.
At a time when many might be worried that the delta variant is curbing business, and that many families are staying home, Jungle Cruise‘s pure U.S. and domestic theatrical ticket sales show –once again after Warner Bros.’ Space Jam: A New Legacy’s $31M opening– the demographic is willing to head out. Again, when we see such holds and success in the face of dynamic windows, the question continually begged is how much more could Jungle Cruise have made this weekend at the domestic B.O. without Disney+ Premier blocking its path?
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There are some industry analysts who claim that those sitting on the couch to watch Jungle Cruise were never going to head to the movies anyway, but there is a looming concern out there by the business that the casual moviegoer is showing some doubt about returning to the cinema. There’s no worry about avid moviegoers heading to the theaters at this point in time.
Johnson is always a pro in championing his movies, and he kept fans in the loop about starting the press tour back on July 15:
In the face of a pandemic, Johnson and Blunt bravely appeared at the Disneyland premiere for the film and even took a surprise ride on the Jungle Cruise much to the delight of fans (see below). Social media analytics corp RelishMix reports that that pic’s social media was massive “connecting Disneyland 29.7M into the mix along with Disney Studios 62.2M, Disney+ 11.8M, Disney Channel 21.9M for a total social media universe of 559.8M total which is exceptional in relation to family live action comps. Superfan channels on YouTube are also reposting cast junkets with a viral repost rate of 23:1 for the five owned trailers which exceeds the norm of 16:1 along with key performance indicators which popped from the Disneyland premiere event last weekend.”
The Rock’s social media pull across Instagram, Facebook, Twitter counts 333.8M which according to RelishMix reps 59% of the entire reach metric for Jungle Cruise along with The Rock’s YouTube channel, with 5.6M subs, which dropped trailers including the No. 1 trailer from 17 months ago at 8.3M views. And while Blunt, and stars Jesse Plemons and Paul Giamatti are non-social, the Rock’s social powers mixed with Jack Whitehall’s 10.2M fans and Edgar Ramirez’s 5.2M fans are picking up the slack.
Arthouses began to see the light this weekend thanks to A24’s The Green Knight which opened to $6.784M at 2,790 theaters in the No. 2 spot, a result that’s just ahead of the Oscar-winning distributor’s Midsommar which did $6.56M over the three days of the 2019 Independence Day weekend, and was a Wednesday opener. Green Knight played notably in upscale and hipster arthouses, i.e. Alamo Drafthouse had five of the top ten runs I hear. Again, a big city play here with its main cash coming from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco, Boston, DC, Seattle and Phoenix. A24 hung onto this David Lowery-directed, Dev Patel fantasy film throughout the pandemic, rather than relegate it to a PVOD release, and I’m sure they aren’t sorry. The pic cost under $30M, but I understand a majority of that production cost was covered by foreign sales. The pic is on a 20-day theatrical window.
Relish Mix says that a bulk of Green Knight’s near 45M social media universe before opening weekend came from 41.3M views on five YouTube videos which were re-dated from the pic’s original February 2020 drop of materials. In regards to chatter, “Conversations shout with excitement about the approach that A24 has taken to introduce the pic’s mythology with early calls for Oscars cinematography nominations as fans of Patel and Alicia Vikander await the release.”
The studio dropped a video which clocked 7.4M views on YouTube about the pic’s origins which is the 14th Century epic poem Sir Gawain and the Green Knight.
Always keen on connecting with Gen-X and millennials, A24 even created a real roleplaying game for Green Knight.
Last weekend’s pure theatrical releases, Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan Old and Paramount’s Snake Eyes took tumbles in their second weekends respectively with -60% and -70%. Old, which posted a drop on par with Shyamalan’s 2006 misfire Lady in the Water, was good enough to take No. 3 (some have it at No. 2) with $6.76M and a ten-day of $30.6M. Snake Eyes at 2,348 theaters made $4M for a ten-day tally of $22.2M. Again the lackluster results here strictly boil down to lack of interest in the IPs, as indicated by the pic’s sour audience exit results last weekend.
In 5th place is Focus Features’ Stillwater which is coming in right where many expected with $5.1M in 5th at 2,531 theaters and 232 DMAs.
“We’re thrilled to see so many parts of the country, like the Midwest and the South, returning to theaters to watch Matt in Stillwater. Those audiences came out solidly, which is promising for the weeks to come on the film,” said Focus Features president of distribution Lisa Bunnell. As we told you yesterday, the movie which is partially set in Stillwater, OK where Damon plays an oil-rig worker, saw five out of its top ten theaters this past weekend coming from Oklahoma which is uncommon for the domestic B.O. Stillwater‘s top theaters over Friday and Saturday were 1.) Warren 14, Oklahoma City ($16k) 2.) the Carmelview, Phoenix ($10,4K) 3.) Broken Arrow, Tulsa ($10,1K), 4.) Tibbs, Indianapolis ($8,3K), 5.) Cinemark 17, Tulsa ($7,5K), 6.) Cal Oaks, LA ($7,2K) 7) Showbiz, Oklahoma City ($7,1K), 8) AMC Stillwater ($7,1K), 9) Estrella Falls, Phoenix ($7K) and 10) Cinemark West Plano ($6,7K).
Top markets for Stillwater included were LA and NY with the most runs respectively 127 (7.1% of the B.O.) and 103 cinemas (4.2%). Phoenix, San Francisco, Oklahoma City, and Denver were above their normal market share with Oklahoma City continuing to be the most impressive placing 9th with only 17 runs. Best grossing region for the film was the South. Overall in rank the other top grossing markets were 3) Dallas (69 theaters, 3.9% of B.O.), 4) Phoenix (43 theaters, 3.3%), 5) San Francisco (56 theaters, 2.5%), 6) Houston (49 theaters, 2.4%), 7) Chicago (69 theaters, 2.4%), 8) Denver (47 theaters, 2.2%), 9) Oklahoma City (17 theaters, 1.9%) and 10) Atlanta (54 theaters, 1.9%).
We’re building this weekend’s top 10 chart:
- Jungle Cruise (Dis) 4,310 theaters, Fri $13.378M/3-day $34.2M/Wk 1
- The Green Knight (A24) 2,790 theaters (-25)/Fri $2.878M/3-day $6.78M Wk 1
- Old (Uni) 3,379 theaters (+24), Fri $2.1M (-70%)/Sat $2.65M/Sun $1.99M/3-day $6.76M (-60%)/Total: $30.6M/Wk 2
- Black Widow (Dis) 3,360 theaters (-890)/Fri $1.9M (-46%)/3-day $6.09M (-48%)/Total $166.7M/Wk 4
- Stillwater (Foc) 2,531 theaters, Fri $1.85M/Sat $1.92M/Sun $1.35M/3-day $5.12M/ Wk 1
Saturday AM Update: Typically these theatrical day-and-date in-home releases tend to be frontloaded, so it will be interesting to see if Disney’s Jungle Cruise goes off course tonight after posting a solid Friday of $13.378M which has predictions at a $32.5M opening. That’s a better-than-expected opening for the Dwayne Johnson-Emily Blunt film, and bests the former’s pre-pandemic debut of Skyscraper ($24.9M) and isn’t too far from the start of his 2018 Rampage ($35.7M). Jungle Cruise is also outstripping the theatrical 3-day of family pic Cruella ($21.5M) (granted, it was a largely female skewing title), which was also available in homes on Disney+ Premier for $29.99. Imax and premium large format screens are delivering around 33% of the gross; another indicator that when people go to the movies during the pandemic, they’re choosing to watch movies in the most platinum means possible. The best markets for Jungle Cruise was the West (nine out of the top 10 theaters were in the region), Midwest, and Southeast.
How much more does Jungle Cruise make on Disney+ Premier over the weekend (at a $29.99 price)? We’re expected to find out more tomorrow.
Despite being sued by Scarlett Johansson over their shake-up of the distribution model on Black Widow, I’m sure Disney is still unapologetic about sticking to a dynamic window here on Jungle Cruise in the face of the delta variant. Last night, Paramount unset their eOne title Clifford the Big Red Dog out of concerns for the lingering virus. Disney’s defense for day-and-date remains families’ hesitation to venture out while the virus is still around, giving consumers the option of when and where to see the movie. At the same time, that has some in the industry wrinkling their eyebrows at the conglomerate as Disney theme parks remain open; in fact they pushed the state of California greatly to ease their Covid restrictions so that Disneyland could re-open.
While the overall weekend box office remains low with an estimated $73.2M from all titles – though up 3% from last weekend, we’ll never know what a full box office recovery looks like, even in the face of the pandemic, until all this day-and-date experimenting ceases. There’s no doubt that we’ll close the gap between the 2021 and 2020 box office. Through last Sunday July 25, 2021, box office was running only 18% behind the Jan. 1-July 25, 2020 period with $1.55 billion.
Jungle Cruise did well with audiences earning an A- CinemaScore, which is the same Johnson received on Rampage and San Andreas. CinemaScore/Screen Engine audience exits on PostTrak were very good with 80% in the top two boxes and a 60% from the general audience, while kids under 12 enjoyed the Disney theme park-inspired pic even more with 87% positive and a 70% recommend. Males showed up at 52%, females at 48% with 52% over 25 with 34% under 17 years old. Diversity demos were 55% Caucasian, 18% Latino, 13% Black, & 14% Asian/other.
Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan movie Old will hold the No. 2 spot a second Friday of $2.09M (-70%) and a second weekend of $6.67M (-60%) for a ten-day of $30.5M, however, A24’s The Green Knight is coming in higher than the $4M expected with its Dev Patel fantasy movie The Green Knight with an estimated $6.58M at 2,790 theaters which earned a C+ CinemaScore. That’s par for the course with A24 on their edgy genre fare: win over critics (this title at 89% certified fresh) and divide audiences (but keep them discussing the film on the way home). Green Knight‘s start is right in the wheelhouse for A24: currently slightly ahead of Midsommar‘s 3-day of $6.56M (though that Ari Aster title had a 5-day debut). With a short window of 20 days, can Green Knight leg out and do a 4x multiple like Midsommar ($27.4M)? That would come as a wonderful sign for arthouses as they are hungering to do a pre-pandemic level of business. Green Knight hooked a great 18-34 demographic of 70%, with 62% over 25, leaning male at 62%. Those who showed up were 60% Caucasian, 19% Latino, 10% Black and 11% Asian/other. The David Lowery-directed movie played best on the coasts, and in big cities, and we hear that the Scotiabank in Toronto cracked its top ten theaters — a great sign for moviegoing in the Canadian cinema capital as it reopened just over two weeks ago. Green Knight made $2.878M yesterday (including $750K previews), which is higher than Midsommar‘s Friday of $2.2M.
Disney’s Black Widow is estimated to do $6.09M in weekend 4, -48%, for a running total of $166.7M in 4th place. For those keeping track, if that estimate holds up, it will be the worst fourth weekend ever for a Disney-released Marvel title after Ant-Man‘s fourth weekend of $7.9M. Typically, all Disney-released MCU titles post fourth weekends in the double digits, with the exception of Ant-Man and Ant-Man and the Wasp ($8.76M).
Focus Features/Participant’s Stillwater will crack the top 5 with a $1.84M Friday (including $280K Thursday previews) and a $4.5M estimated Friday-Sunday start at 2,531. Audiences weren’t wowed with a B- CinemaScore. PostTrak was awful at 63% positive, and a 34% recommend. Audience leaned male at 51% with older audiences coming out at 81% over 25, 46% over 35, and 36% over 45 years old. Diversity demos were 66% White, 17% Latino, 8% Black, & 9% Asian/other. Stillwater played best in the Midwest and South with five of its top ten runs coming from Oklahoma; which rarely pops at the box office. Best numbers were in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Dallas and Houston.
Top 5 estimates for the weekend of July 30-Aug. 1
- Jungle Cruise (Dis) 4,310 theaters, Fri $13.378M/3-day $32.5M/Wk 1
- Old (Uni) 3,379 theaters (+24), Fri $2.09M (-70%)/3-day $6.67M (-60%)/Wk 2
- The Green Knight (A24) 2,790 theaters (-25)/Fri $2.878M/3-day $6.58M Wk 1
- Black Widow (Dis) 3,360 theaters (-890)/Fri $1.9M (-46%)/3-day $6.09M (-48%)/Total $166.7M/Wk 4
- Stillwater (Foc) 2,531 theaters, Fri $1.84M/3-day $4.5M/ Wk 1
Friday afternoon update revised: While the town is getting used to projecting Warner Bros.’ day-and-date theatrical and streaming numbers, Disney’s throwing a bit of a curveball: Remember, many box office analysts didn’t see the Friday-to-Saturday 41% collapse of Black Widow coming.
Warner’s theatrical titles in the home are free to HBO Max subscribers, whereas Disney+ subs have to pay an extra $29.99 to see Jungle Cruise. To date in the pandemic, we’ve had a greater number of Warner Bros/HBO Max movies vs. Disney/Disney+ Premier titles. In revised afternoon estimates, we hear the projection for the Dwayne Johnson-Emily Blunt pairing stands between $12M-$13M today, which could near a $30M 3-day at 4,310 theaters, the pandemic’s widest opening title to date. That Friday figure includes last night’s $2.7M. Again, take these numbers with a grain of salt.
Comparing to another Disney family film that’s on a dynamic window, Jungle Cruise‘s Friday is ahead of Cruella‘s first day of $7.7M. That movie over three days of a four-day holiday weekend wound up at $21.5M. Should Jungle Cruise‘s Friday remain high, it will also best the first day for a Johnson pic since 2018’s Skyscraper ($9.2M), which went on to do $24.9M — that’s without any competition from a home release.
A24 is looking to take No. 2 with its David Lowery fantasy The Green Knight headed toward an estimated $2.5M-$3M Friday, including $750K previews. At 2,790 venues, the pic could do between $6.5M-$8M.
Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan-directed genre pic Old is seeing a $1.9M Friday (-72%), $6M second weekend, -64%, for a 10-day of $29.8M in the No. 3 spot.
Disney’s fourth weekend of Black Widow is seeing around $6.1M, -47%, after a $1.8M Friday (-48%) on its way to $166.7M for No. 4.
Focus Features’ Tom McCarthy-directed drama Stillwater is looking at $1.4M at 2,531 for a 3-day of $3.5M, further down the charts.
Friday AM update: Disney is reporting $2.7M for its Dwayne Johnson-Emily Blunt family adventure movie Jungle Cruise from shows that began at 7PM. The film, which was delayed due to the pandemic, is also hitting Disney+ Premier at $29.99 today. In the wake of Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit against Disney for breach of contract on its failure to deliver an exclusive wide theatrical release on Black Widow, I hear that the Dwayne Johnson and his Seven Bucks camp have no intention of battling Disney for any anticipated loss of dollars on this day-and-date release on the Jaume Collet-Serra-directed movie; the action star’s camp was in lock-step with the Mouse House when the announcement was made to deliver the pic to a global audience everywhere at a time when certain offshore theatrical markets (like Southeast Asia) are offline due to Covid.
Jungle Cruise is looking to do $25M this weekend, with another $40M from international territories for $65M WW at the box office.
In regards to pandemic box office numbers, and in particular Disney+ Premier-box office releases, Jungle Cruise bested the Thursday night of Cruella which did $1.4M. Note these latest experiments by Disney have roughly an exclusive Thursday night window before they hit the streaming service at midnight Friday.
Jungle Cruise‘s Thursday night is ahead of Johnson’s 2018 Skyscraper which wasn’t a high for him at the B.O.; that pic doing a $1.95M in previews at 2,950 theaters off 7PM showtimes before posting a $9.2M Friday, $24.9M 3-day. The pic finaled at $68.4M in U.S./Canada. Jungle Cruise is also ahead of Rock’s New Line/Warner Bros’ Rampage which made $2.4M on its first Thursday. That translated into a pre-pandemic 2018 Friday of $11.5M, and a $35.7M 3-day.
Disney is expected to report first weekend global PVOD numbers on Jungle Cruise on Sunday AM. Black Widow‘s first weekend on Disney+ Premier was $60M. Add in $158M WW theatrical debut, and the first weekend global B.O. and Disney PVOD take on that film was $218M. Samba TV, which only clocks terrestrial Smart TV households in streaming viewership, reported a 10-day U.S. household viewership of Black Widow of 2M which translates into a PVOD gross revenue over that frame of $59.98M stateside. To date, at the domestic B.O., the Johansson MCU movie counts $160.6M.
A24’s Dev Patel fantasy movie Green Knight came up strong with $750K at 2,790 theaters. The NY-based indie distrib’s previous preview highs include Ari Aster’s Midsommar (which started on a Tuesday) with $1.1M and the filmmaker’s Hereditary which did a $1.3M Thursday. Green Knight has the best reviews of the weekend for a wide entry at 91% fresh. Jungle Cruise is down to 63% fresh. Green Knight was previously reported to do around $4M this weekend.
Focus Features’ Stillwater also held previews at 7PM yesterday making only $280K from 1,970 locations. The Matt Damon drama, which made it world premiere at Cannes, is at 70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The movie is expected to do around $5M this weekend at 2,531 locations.
Universal’s Old was the No. 1 film throughout the week with a 7-day estimate of $23.9M at 3,355 theaters. The No. 2 movie? Black Widow in its third week, which did $17.44M at 4,250.